Thursday, July 24, 2008

Oil prices continue to decline . . . .

The stock markets are picking up a little steam this week as the barrel price of oil continues to drop.  Have we seen the top of the mountain???  It may be too early to tell, however, the slight relief makes you wonder whether all of the big three that is closing plants and getting rid of shifts that are making the big gas guzzlers (trucks, large SUVs, etc.) is not a little hasty!

However, with the kind of loses that GM and Ford (Ford announces today, down $8.7 B in losses), it is hard to argue against them.  This Ford announcement explaining the write down of the value of SUV and truck operations, with its view of a turnaround cloudy until 2010, has caused the stock market to be down a couple hundred points today after a nice couple of days of rebounds.  It appears good news is handled cautiously by the markets while bad news hits like a lead balloon.  GM is getting killed domestically but doing pretty nicely overseas.

So, what is a person to do; depends on a number of things!  What is the risk tolerance, what is the time horizon for the funds at risk, what markets are have room for profits???  At this point, I think you need to be careful and picky.  If you can be a value investor in large cap growth companies that have been beaten down (anything blue chip really) there is upside room for growth with little downside risk.  Also, consider the same in Europe, large companies from large countries have some value plays there as well.  Finally, pay attention to Emerging Markets as I think this is the area of growth!


No comments: