Tuesday, December 16, 2008

A week later and no auto bailout . . . yet!

Well we are still waiting for the White House to agree to forward money to the big three (since the Senate said no way!). President Bush returns from a surprise visit to Iraq to make an announcement which sounds like it could be more than the $14-15 billion from recent discussions.

The FED meets today and is expected to lower interest rates to 0.5% - can't really go much lower! The most recent industrial production numbers are down, as are the latest numbers on manufacturing output which show the recession not only is definitely here, but not showing any signs of getting better.

What type of stocks can one look at, for the long-term, that would be a safe bet right now??? Well, safe . . . is relative, but assuming a long-term time horizon, there is value is companies with a good balance sheet and a secure dividend in the 4.5 - 6.0% range (be careful of some in the 7-9% range in common stock as I am not sure those dividends will not get cut a bit). Also, look for companies with a good balance sheet and good cash flow (Johnson & Johnson, Nestle, Zurich Life, Proctor & Gamble, and Accor). These are long-term plays but I feel will have less volatility in the near term.

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