Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Politics and the markets

Well, we now know who will be facing off in November.  Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin.
Regardless of what happens, there will be a "First" on November 4th.  Either the U.S. will elect the first minority as the President of there will be the first elected female Vice President in history.  There has been a lot of rhetoric already and more to come.  For me, I am looking forward to the debates.  We usually get about 3 for the Presidential candidates, though there can be more; and at least one from the Vice Presidential candidates.  What I always find interesting in this buildup is how many "friends" and "supporters" everyone has now!  Once the election is over, the losing side kind of packs up and goes home!  We don't usually hear from those two on the short end, for about 4 years if then (think Walter Mondale, Geraldine Ferraro, Robert Dole, John Kerry, etc.).

From a financial perspective how will the markets fare?  It is too early to tell, and I don't know if typical "republican or democrat rules" will prevail this time, and the markets, the economy and the world is a lot different now.  Will this "first" in the election cause things to progress differently than in the past. 

In the meantime you need to look for value.  You will find this by locating the best "player" in an industry that you think will be around and determining whether this individual stock was "beaten down too far".   If you "dollar-cost average" or "value-cost average" this can be a good time to add to a position.  If you invest in mutual funds, the same holds true for you.  In all cases you needed to monitor your diversification (which sometimes can be difficult with mutual funds - just make sure they are not all in the same business --- all large cap growth, etc.), your time horizon and be comfortable with your risk tolerance.  It is never too early to look for "sales" (deals on value plays) or starting to save and/or invest for your retirement!

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