Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Future of the markets

Well, we have lost Ed McMahon, Farrah Fawcett, Michael Jackson and Billy Mays and Bernie Madoff has been sent up the river for 150 years! What is the world coming to?

Global stock markets have been improving since March, though recently they have suffered a slight dip. China and the rest of Asia has had a nice year with up 40+% from the lows. Global markets did originally fall farther than the U.S. market did, so they also need to rise more to get back. The U.S. market seems to be moving in the 8300 - 8700 range on the Dow and can't seem to break out for long in any direction. Small caps (primarily technology) seems to be where new money is moving, with the thought that as business gets better, organizations will have tio increase spending on technology which rapidly advances, but where money has been on the sidelines for the last year. Companies, like a lot of the individuals were not buying much of anything. Except for Apple Computer (AAPL)

Oil and precious metals will occaisionally move, then bounce back down. I had expected higher summer gas prices at the pump (I am currently paying in the mid $2.00/gallon range), and though summer just got started, that price seems to be in a holding pattern as well.

Interest rates have moved up slightly, though there is no immediate fear of inflation. That may be difficult to comprehend with the large outpourings of cash from the federal government with TARP and other programs. It seems certain that President Obama will have to go back on his "no new taxes to the middle class" campaign promise in order to pay for the trillions of dollars of spending.

Government paper is stable, currently at:

1.1% for the 2-year
2.5% for the 5-year
3.5% for the 10-year
4.3% for the 30-year

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