Markets fluctuate, but don't portend any LT trends

World markets have for the most part risen (in typical roller coaster fashion) since the March 6th low point of 2009.  In the last 7-10 days, the markets have quickly erased all 2009 gains, though today is a good start to a new week.  As I have said many time, the biggest issue of determination of prices for investments is not anything to do with "quality" or specific numbers, but really about perception of how things are versus how things will be.  So, it is nothing more than a great big guess, and if a large group of investors guess in a certain direction, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy of ended there.

The time-honored investment philosophy of "buy/hold" seems to be gone by the wayside or at least not being admitted to at cocktail parties like it once was. The auto manufacturers and dealers in the U.S. are disappearing or being down-sized.  Oil has started creeping back up and trades regularly between $50-60 a barrel.  Speculations is for $2.55 a gallon for gas prices, this summer.  Layoffs and business closures are still happening, though there is some evidence that this is slowing.  Housing has not recovered, though there are pockets of growth (and sales) in the country, as well as people now getting multiple offers (though many people are still looking for a "steal").  

Internationally, I believe emerging markets will be the first to show great improvements.  India is having a nice upwards run of double-digit gain for the year.  The rupee (India's currency) has benefited as well.  In Asia, things are starting to look a little rosy, though in Europe there is speculation that the markets, though getting a boost this week, will be worse than the U.S. markets.  Many predict another downturn shortly, as percentage run ups (like to around 18 PE for the S&P) are unfounded by the fundamentals and believed to be "wishful thinking" that things are returning to normal.  "Normal" still seems to be 2-3 years away.

Though there still is a lot of negatives in the world markets, hope springs eternal.  Now that Spring is finally here (based on the calendar), we can see if the public is confident in employers, their government, and themselves to begin "living" again!